Why do I see emissions when I change from full till to reduced till?

Why do I see emissions when I change from full till to reduced till?

This is only applicable to dry soils in different climates. With the updated models of IPCC 2019, the expected change of carbon stocks due to changes in tillage practices to reduced till lead to some surprising results, depending on soil moisture regime. While a change from conventional to no-till will still show carbon sequestered, a change from conventional to reduced till in dry soils in any climate is assumed to reduce soil carbon by 1-2 % (with a margin of error of up to 7% depending on the climate) – meaning soil releases rather than sequesters carbon. The increase in emissions derives from the updated IPCC factors from 2016 where the EF for the practice change from conventional till to reducedtill in dry soils was 1.03 (i.e. sequestration), to 0.98 of IPCC 2019, which is carbon loss. This can be seen in table 5.5 of the relevant IPCC reports. The column "Error" in the table indicates that there is uncertainty around this factor of + - 5%  (range of 0,049 + -) which, depending on interpretation, could also mean that there is a chance in science that there is no carbon stock change happening if you move to reducedtill in dry soils, no release nor storage. Despite expected worries from users, we strive to offer a credible, trustworthy quantification tool based on the latest scientific knowledge. We cannot start defining emission factors we use by choosing a random option from the uncertainty range, as we would need to do that for a whole set of other factors as well. Therefore, for us it is crucial that we build the model on the newest insights and the updated IPCC 2019 factors. 

 

For the future, we think the main benefit will be the reporting of uncertainty, and we are actively working on including this into the tool and to find the most appropriate way to report uncertainty both in terms of meaningfulness for users (growers and supply chains) and accuracy.  

 

There are also updates for land use change to note, where approximately 1% carbon loss is observed rather than carbon sequestration when moving from arable to grass in tropical moist climates.